The Effect of Seniority on Economic Growth

Hussein Raqfar*, Mir Hussein Moosavi**, Zahra Kashaniyan***


Economic growth is the most important parameter to determine progress and the rate of development in every country. Man power is considered as an important parameter in all models of economic growth. Therefore, demographic variables play an important role in the economic growth of countries. During recent decades, demographic variables have experienced large fluctuations in Iran. Baby-boom in 60s, considerable decrease in the rate of fertility in 70s and its continuation and intensification in 80s has led to change in age structure of the country. The present paper seeks to examine the effect of these changes on economic growth. To this end, national product in considered as a function of capital and labor force and is estimated on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function and ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The results indicate that capital and active labor force has a positive effect on economic growth and retired labor force has a negative effect on it. If seniority increases one percent, the economic growth, on average, will decrease 0.01, given that other conditions are fixed.

Key words: economic growth, population, age structure, ordinary least squares (OLS).





T An Evaluation of Demographic-Social Policies for Active Seniority in Iran and Future Challenges

Nader Motee' Haqshenas*


Although the number of elders forms a smaller percentage of Iran's population now, the rapid growth of this group compared with the population growth of the whole country and the prediction of increase in the number of elders (60 years old and over) and their share in the population in future years justify the necessity of futuristic planning to monitor the problems of this group, which includes their medical needs, care for and attention to them. . . .

Key words: active seniority, intergeneration approach, society-oriented approach.




T The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth, with Emphasis on State's Expenses on Different Age Groups of Population

Hassan Heydari*, Ra'na Asqari Yalqooz Aqaji**, Seyyed Jamal al-din Muhseni Zonoozi***


The present paper examines the short and long term relationship between the growth in the percentage of different age groups of population and economic growth in a dynamic model of Iran's economy. Therefore, bound test procedure is used to examine the existence of long term relationship, and autoregressive distributed lag model and error checking model are used to estimate the long term and short term coefficients of examined models, respectively. The results obtained from the analysis of relationships and significance of coefficients indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between the percentage growth of population- the group ranging from 15 to 64 years old- and economic growth in Iran.

Key words: population growth, economic growth, bound test procedure, autoregressive distributed lag model, error checking model.



T The Effects of Population Changes, the Scale of Economy and Technology on the Process of Economic Growth

Rahim Dallali Isfahani*, Majid Mo'ayyedi**, 'Azimeh Sadat Husseini***


The level and rate of population changes in each economy is one of the very influential variables in explaining the different rate of economic growth among different countries. The reason why this issue is important in the theories and models of economic growth is that man is considered as the main and basic elements in all activities included in the domain of economics because all economic activities including goods production, consumption, investment, discovery of new ideas and educating modern man certainly requires man's presence. The present paper seeks to analyze the following questions: how the positive results and merits resulted from a greater population in a country can be realized in modern economies which are increasingly relied on science, its accumulation and technological progress? And what grounds are necessary for the realization of these results?

Furthermore, this paper proves the effect of greater population on the ability of an economy to discover new ideas and products by elaborating on a model. Then it depicts the superiority of an economy with larger scale to develop innovations in the domain of economy in a second model. The research findings indicate that any economy certainly needs larger population to discover new ideas in long term. In addition, the larger scale of an economy and larger labor force cause the innovation in production methods to distribute rapidly in the domain of economy and this method causes the rate of economic growth to develop more rapidly in time.

Key words: population, the scale of economy, economic growth, technology, the effect of market size, skill-oriented technological changes.




T An Analysis of Density and Effect of Population on Regional Technological Changes in Iran

Zahra Dehqan Shabani*


One of the factors influencing technological changes in the regions is population and population density. More population has more innovators and leads to higher population density given that the size of the earth is fixed; and this population density facilitates communications and exchanges, increases the size of markets and the possibility of their specialization and leads to more demands for innovations. All these factors encourage the creation and distribution of new technologies. Therefore, both population and population density reinforces the development of technology.

The present paper seeks to analyze the effect of population and population density variables on technological changes in the provinces of Iran, is which the framework of Nachtmann and Clausen's Model is used. The model of econometrics is designed according to Nachtmann and Clausen's Model, which is estimated for 28 provinces of Iran during the period of 1380 to 1388 (2001-2009) using the method of dynamic panel data. The results obtained from the estimation of the model of econometrics indicate population and population density has a positive effect on technological changes in the provinces of Iran.

Key words: population density, dynamic panel data, economic development of region.




T Futurology of Iran's Demographic Changes from 1390 to 1420 (2011- 2041)

Mahmud Moshfeq*, Qurban Husseini**


The present paper investigates the futurology of Iran's population, in which a demographic-documentary analysis is used as its method. The most recent demographic predictions (2012) for world's countries, made by United Nations Population Division, indicate that Iran's population, according to three scenarios of UN (lower level, medium level and higher level), will reach to 87.7, 96.8 and 106 million people, respectively. According to the adjusted scenario which is proposed by the authors of this paper, Iran's population will reach to 91 million people in 1420 (2041).

The received results indicate that under replacement level fertility (less than 2.1 infants born alive for each mother) will continue in Iran, which highlights the necessity of futuristic planning for managing seniority in the country. Improvement and reinforcement of family foundation and promotion of religious and Islamic values which are mostly family-based can help to promote the level of fertility and amend the age pyramid of population.

Key words: population prediction, labor force, seniority, number of population.



Social Instability in Iranian Eco-city and Its Demographic Effects

Mustafa Mohammadi Dahcheshmeh*


City and urbanization has been subject to many fundamental qualitative and quantitative changes at the beginning of 21st century which is called the age of postmodernism, globalization, post-metropolitan, and etc. Present civilization is increasingly urbanized and demographic changes and social stratification has caused damaging consequences to social existence. The dimensions of urban settlements are increasing complicated and, as a result, human dangers are manifested in urban environments. Today, in fact, we encounter a kind of time contradiction in cities, in which 1- we have larger houses and smaller families, we have more comfort and less time; 2- we have more specialists and more problems, we have more medicines and less health; 3- we spend more and have less money, we buy more and enjoy less; 4- we have taller buildings and lower temper, we have wider freeways and narrower views; 5- we write more and learn less, we plan more and execute less; 6- we have more time and less entertainment, we have more food variety and unhealthier diet; 7- we have more income and more divorces, we have dreamlike houses and scattered (disintegrated) families. Using a pathologic approach and an analytical method, the present paper seeks to elaborate on the social and mostly multidimensional realities ruling the existence of cities, especially Iranian cities, at the age of post-metropolitan. The research findings indicate that demographic changes in recent decades and, as a result, urban heterogeneous social topography, emigration, social isolationism, suburbanization and inadequacy in providing services, social damages and negligence over social engineering are among the most important factors of human dangers in Iran's cities.

Key words: city, social instability, human dangers, Iranian eco-city.

* . Assistant professor of Al-Zahra University raghhg@yahoo.co.uk

** . Assistant professor of Al-Zahra University hmousavi@alzahra.ac.ir

*** . MA student of economics zahra.kashanian@student.alzahra.ac.ir

Received: 2013-5-26 - Accepted: 201310-1

* . Faculty member of Institute for demographic research and studies on Asia-Oceania (Asia-Pacific)

Received: 2013-2-18 - Accepted: 2013-8-16 nader_m_h@yahoo.com

* . Associate professor of Urmia University h.heidari@urmia.ac.ir

** . MA student of Urmia University asghari.rana@gmail.com

*** . Assistant professor of Urmia University jmzonouzi@yahoo.com

Received: 2012-3-6 - Accepted: 2013-7-6

* . Associate professor of economics department, Isfahan University rateofinterest@yahoo.com

** . MA of Isfahan University majid_m894@yahoo.com

*** . MA student of Isfahan University mina.hosseyni66@yahoo.com

Received: 2013-6-2 - Accepted: 2013-9-30

* . Assistant professor of Shiraz University zahra_dehghan2003@yahoo.com

Received: 2013-4-19 - Accepted: 2013-8-30

* . PhD of demography, Institute for demographic research and studies on Asia and Oceania (Asia-Pacific)


** . Research expert of Institute for demographic research and studies on Asia and Oceania (Asia-Pacific)

Received: 2013-6-5 - Accepted: 2013-10-1

* . Assistant professor of Shahid Chamran University, Ahwaz m.mohammadi@scu.ac.ir

  Received: 2013-2-23 - Accepted: 2013-6-2